← Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.4% | 11 | 6-4-1 | 59.1% | 56.7% | 58.7% | +3.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.2% | 18 | 3-13-2 | 22.2% | 27.3% | 45.9% | -1.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 34.0% | -8.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 54.0% | +2.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -2.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 74.9% | +15.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.7% | +20.8 |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.8% | +18.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +3.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.4% | +5.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 60.1% | +5.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.5% | +1.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.5% | -1.1 |
| Arcane | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 73.4% | +17.5 |
| Water Fractal | 1.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.5% | -1.1 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 72.7% | +16.9 |
| Wind Exia | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 73.2% | +22.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.7% | +26.6 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Positioning | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dodge Roll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana's Cascade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |