← Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.3% | -3.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.2% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 45.1% | -2.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 66.0% | +8.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.5% | -17.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.1% | +3.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.1% | -19.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +2.6 |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 34.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.7% | -20.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.2% | -15.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Arcane | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Water Fractal | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Wind Exia | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flared Iridescence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |