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Wind Wakeup ComboTier 2
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.4% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -6.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.0% | -2.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.1% | +2.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.5% | -0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Wind Exia | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.0% | +18.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Wind Wakeup Combo decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Perse, Relentless Raptor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Concealed Marksman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Squallbind Pounce | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Draught of Stamina | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Steady Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poised Bowman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dodge Roll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Aerotheurge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Invective Instruction | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |