← Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
Wind SeiryuuTier 1
at Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
decks
20
(11.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
166
93-48-25
overall winrate
63.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.1%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
59.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1470
· median 1517
· range 1120–1679
(20 pilots with an ELO rating)
1038
Q1 1194
Q3 1419
1750
65% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
10% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.4% | 27 | 11-9-7 | 53.7% | 53.2% | 44.6% | -2.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 18 | 13-3-2 | 77.8% | 72.7% | 54.1% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 54.9% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 58.6% | +4.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.7% | +12.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 53.7% | +2.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 8 | 4-2-2 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 47.6% | -1.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.7% | +13.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 63.8% | +10.3 |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 61.9% | +7.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.0% | +2.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 30.7% | -9.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 57.7% | +4.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 51.0% | +0.5 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 54.7% | +2.4 |
| Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.7% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 30.7% | -9.7 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 5 | 0-3-2 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 37.8% | -7.0 |
| Wind Exia | 1.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 57.7% | +5.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +0.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.1% | +6.4 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.5% | +8.1 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Overlord | 0.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.6% | -5.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.4% | +1.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.2% | +11.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.6% | -13.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 20 from this event
The 20 public Wind Seiryuu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 14 mirror matches (4 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Forest Cake, Stolen Chance, Reclaim. Losers more often ran: Royal Oathguard, Ducal Seal, Resolute Stand.
Forest Cake
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.9.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Stolen Chance
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Reclaim
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Excalibur, Cleansing Light
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Calming Breeze
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 11.
Candlelight Hourglass
Winning decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 11.
Royal Oathguard
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.9.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 3.
Ducal Seal
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Stifling Trap
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.4.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Beseech the Winds
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 2.
Trained Hawk
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Show all 70 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 50 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Cake | +0.43 | 6 | 0 | 8 | |
| Royal Oathguard | -0.36 | 3 | 8 | 1 | |
| Ducal Seal | -0.36 | 0 | 5 | 5 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.36 | 6 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.36 | 7 | 2 | 3 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.29 | 3 | 7 | 2 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.29 | 1 | 5 | 8 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.29 | 4 | 8 | 1 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.29 | 2 | 6 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.29 | 0 | 4 | 4 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.21 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.21 | 2 | 5 | 6 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.21 | 2 | 5 | 7 | |
| Calming Breeze | +0.21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Candlelight Hourglass | +0.21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | |
| Seiryuu's Command | -0.14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.14 | 2 | 4 | 4 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | -0.14 | 2 | 4 | 4 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.14 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Harness Lightning | -0.14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baby Green Slime | -0.14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.14 | 2 | 0 | 12 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.14 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Primal Whip | -0.14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -0.14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Displace | -0.07 | 4 | 5 | 5 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Beseeched Fatestone | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 9 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 13 | |
| Sunblessed Gazelle | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 6 | |
| Purifying Thurible | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 13 | |
| Mirrorbound Covenant | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Draught of Stamina | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clash of Fates | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Imperious Galebind | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Winds of Destiny | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 5 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 5 | |
| Byakko's Command | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Peer Beyond | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Noble Dissolution | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |