← Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
Fire OblationTier 2
at Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
decks
5
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
39
12-25-2
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.9%
avg ELO -6.0 per match
expected value
39.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
37.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1232
· median 1189
· range 1108–1474
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1038
Q1 1194
Q3 1419
1750
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
60% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.4% | 7 | 0-7-0 | 0.0% | 18.2% | 19.7% | -15.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 36.2% | -10.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.3% | -20.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -2.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 25.8% | -23.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Water Fractal | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.1 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
