← Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
decks
7
(3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
48
20-21-7
overall winrate
49.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.5%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1257
· median 1232
· range 1172–1361
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1038
Q1 1194
Q3 1419
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
29% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.4% | 11 | 5-3-3 | 59.1% | 56.7% | 61.1% | +4.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.3% | -12.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.5% | +17.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 31.4% | -11.9 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.1% | +21.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.2% | +3.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 31.4% | -17.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Arcane | 1.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 32.6% | -13.0 |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Overlord | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 75.4% | +24.4 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Reduce to Ash, Planted Explosive. Losers more often ran: Stolen Chance, Vanish from Sight, Crystallized Destiny.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Planted Explosive
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Tariff Ring
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Stolen Chance
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Vanish from Sight
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Ducal Seal
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nefarious Timepiece | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Waited Accord | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |