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Horse and TaxesTier 2
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -3.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.6% | +9.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.8% | -3.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +14.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.5% | -23.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 52.1% | +1.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 70.8% | +13.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.7% | +8.4 |
| Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Water Fractal | 1.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 67.2% | +16.5 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.9% | -17.4 |
| Wind Exia | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.8% | -22.8 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Horse and Taxes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card-quantity differences observed in the mirrors — every mirror used an identical decklist.