← Ascent Los Angeles

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Ascent Los Angeles. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd
Wind Seiryuu
56.3%
9.7% share · 321 matches
↑ top
1st
Wind Nico
57.7%
0.5% share · 11 matches
3rd
Water Aetherwing
55.5%
11.5% share · 365 matches
#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Nico 2 0.5% 11 59.1% 47.5% 57.7% 53.7% 1347 —
2 Wind Seiryuu 38 9.7% 321 60.1% 56.6% 56.3% 53.8% 1394 ↑ top
3 Water Aetherwing 45 11.5% 365 59.0% 59.2% 55.5% 56.0% 1369 —
4 Fire Ravishing Mill 3 0.8% 32 64.1% 51.0% 54.3% 50.2% 1613 ↑ top
5 Wind Lorraine 1 0.3% 13 57.7% 63.7% 53.4% 56.3% 1357 —
6 Water Allies 1 0.3% 12 62.5% 75.7% 53.3% 59.1% 1162 ↓ low
7 Fire Luxem Assassin 6 1.5% 39 60.3% 65.4% 53.2% 56.9% 1278 —
8 Water Fractal 31 7.9% 255 53.7% 51.6% 51.9% 51.7% 1363 —
9 Water Genbu 19 4.9% 146 53.4% 45.6% 51.8% 47.4% 1398 ↑ top
10 Wind Crux Lorraine 5 1.3% 47 55.3% 51.0% 51.6% 51.8% 1351 —
11 Wind Arcane 2 0.5% 23 65.2% 63.2% 51.4% 51.0% 1457 ↑ top
12 Wind Luxem Zander 2 0.5% 18 55.6% 50.7% 51.2% 49.1% 1455 ↑ top
13 Fire Crux Merlin 2 0.5% 20 57.5% 63.7% 51.0% 54.2% 1320 —
14 Fire Byakko 1 0.3% 9 50.0% 51.6% 50.7% 53.4% 1345 —
15 Fire Umbra Guardian 18 4.6% 150 52.7% 49.2% 49.8% 48.6% 1356 —
16 Fire Crux Lorraine 12 3.1% 97 52.1% 52.9% 49.6% 50.7% 1306 —
17 Fire Merlin 1 0.3% 9 61.1% 45.0% 49.5% 45.6% 1458 ↑ top
18 Wind Shadowstrike 21 5.4% 154 44.8% 40.6% 49.4% 47.2% 1299 —
19 Fire Tera Mage 3 0.8% 22 36.4% 41.7% 49.3% 50.0% 1179 ↓ low
20 Horse and Taxes 10 2.6% 99 53.5% 54.5% 49.2% 51.0% 1314 —
21 Wind Luxem Assassin 3 0.8% 26 53.8% 57.2% 48.8% 50.2% 1353 —
22 Water Crux Mage 4 1.0% 31 41.9% 39.9% 47.9% 46.3% 1355 —
23 Water Astra Diana 1 0.3% 8 50.0% 57.4% 47.9% 51.1% 1231 ↓ low
24 Fire Oblation 18 4.6% 144 47.6% 51.5% 47.2% 50.5% 1295 —
25 Wind Alice 1 0.3% 7 42.9% 50.9% 46.8% 48.0% 1182 ↓ low
26 Fire Tera Diao Chan 1 0.3% 7 42.9% 41.9% 46.7% 45.5% 1328 —
27 Fire Aetherwing 8 2.0% 70 50.7% 52.5% 46.7% 49.9% 1407 ↑ top
28 Water Ravishing Mill 5 1.3% 43 53.5% 53.4% 46.7% 47.2% 1311 —
29 Wind Razorgale 3 0.8% 22 31.8% 45.8% 46.5% 50.9% 1142 ↓ low
30 Wind Allies 4 1.0% 31 41.9% 45.0% 46.4% 47.1% 1269 —
31 Water Umbra Guardian 1 0.3% 9 33.3% 48.2% 46.3% 52.2% 1141 ↓ low
32 Wind Wakeup Combo 6 1.5% 55 46.4% 52.2% 46.2% 49.6% 1298 —
33 Water Crux Merlin 2 0.5% 13 38.5% 48.3% 46.2% 48.8% 1193 ↓ low
34 Fire Nico 1 0.3% 10 50.0% 52.6% 46.2% 47.5% 1266 —
35 Wind Astra Cleric 6 1.5% 46 47.8% 45.8% 46.0% 46.1% 1262 —
36 Fire Aggro 13 3.3% 97 42.8% 42.7% 46.0% 46.9% 1267 —
37 Fire Umbra Alice 2 0.5% 14 35.7% 49.4% 45.7% 49.4% 1137 ↓ low
38 Fire Crux Mage 22 5.6% 163 50.6% 45.8% 45.3% 43.6% 1306 —
39 Slimes 6 1.5% 42 33.3% 43.9% 45.1% 49.9% 1186 ↓ low
40 Fire Suzaku 5 1.3% 34 44.1% 46.1% 44.9% 46.2% 1251 ↓ low
41 Wind Byakko 4 1.0% 27 37.0% 43.7% 44.7% 46.4% 1325 —
42 Wind Slimes 2 0.5% 10 25.0% 33.8% 44.6% 45.2% 1141 ↓ low
43 Arcane 2 0.5% 12 33.3% 44.6% 44.6% 48.2% 1178 ↓ low
44 Wind Crux Assassin 1 0.3% 9 33.3% 53.8% 44.4% 49.3% 1193 ↓ low
45 Wind Slice & Dice 1 0.3% 9 33.3% 53.8% 44.4% 49.3% 1193 ↓ low
46 Water Tera Cleric 1 0.3% 10 40.0% 60.7% 44.4% 51.0% 1130 ↓ low
47 Fire Silvie 1 0.3% 10 40.0% 58.2% 44.4% 49.3% 1228 ↓ low
48 Water Astra Ranger 6 1.5% 35 41.4% 36.7% 44.0% 41.7% 1284 —
49 Fire Firebloom Burn 8 2.0% 51 41.2% 43.8% 44.0% 45.2% 1207 ↓ low
50 Water Luxem Assassin 4 1.0% 26 32.7% 42.4% 44.0% 47.3% 1199 ↓ low
51 Fire Umbra Ciel 2 0.5% 8 25.0% 30.1% 44.0% 44.9% 1224 ↓ low
52 Fire Suited 6 1.5% 44 37.5% 43.3% 43.9% 45.7% 1274 —
53 Fire Slimes 1 0.3% 9 38.9% 54.3% 43.8% 48.8% 1152 ↓ low
54 Water Tera Mage 4 1.0% 25 40.0% 43.5% 43.5% 46.8% 1220 ↓ low
55 Water Chess 1 0.3% 5 30.0% 52.8% 42.4% 47.4% 1135 ↓ low
56 Fire Exia 3 0.8% 10 5.0% 17.8% 42.2% 45.1% 1217 ↓ low
57 Dawn of Ashes 1 0.3% 5 20.0% 48.1% 41.5% 48.4% 1028 ↓ low
58 Wind Umbra Ranger 1 0.3% 3 16.7% 33.7% 41.1% 41.2% 1264 —
59 Wind Exia 1 0.3% 6 16.7% 34.4% 40.7% 43.1% 1093 ↓ low
60 Wind Crux Mage 2 0.5% 10 25.0% 29.2% 40.7% 39.4% 1349 —
61 Fire Arcane 1 0.3% 4 25.0% 39.7% 40.3% 43.3% 1155 ↓ low
62 Fire Tonoris 1 0.3% 9 11.1% 31.7% 40.2% 43.1% 997 ↓ low
63 Norm Arcane Rai 1 0.3% 5 0.0% 26.9% 40.0% 42.9% 1084 ↓ low
64 Water Neos 1 0.3% 3 0.0% 35.8% 40.0% 44.3% 1031 ↓ low
65 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 0.3% 4 0.0% 24.2% 40.0% 40.7% 1085 ↓ low
66 Water Slimes 2 0.5% 10 10.0% 23.0% 39.3% 38.7% 1219 ↓ low
67 Water Crux Assassin 2 0.5% 6 16.7% 32.9% 39.1% 41.1% 1185 ↓ low
68 Water Diana 1 0.3% 5 20.0% 36.5% 38.3% 38.8% 1094 ↓ low