← Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024

Fire ArcaneTier 1

at Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024

decks
8 (7.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
49 22-20-7
overall winrate
52.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.5% avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
48.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1273 · median 1234 · range 1195–1423 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)
941 Q1 1189 Q3 1367 1685
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Allies 26.3% 12 6-4-2 58.3% 56.2% 55.4% +2.3
Slimes 13.2% 4 0-4-0 0.0% 25.0% 25.4% -15.8
Wind Shadowstrike 10.5% 5 2-1-2 60.0% 55.6% 54.7% +2.7
Fire Crux Hybrid 6.1% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 45.4% -4.4
Fire Crux Mage 5.3% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 59.6% +6.2
Water Allies 5.3% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 31.0% -14.2
Water Ravishing Mill 5.3% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 49.4% -0.3
Fire Aggro 4.4% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 44.3% -4.3
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 63.5% +21.6
Wind Slimes 2.6% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 65.1% +11.2
Fire Slimes 1.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.4% +15.1
Norm Tera Silvie 1.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.9% -3.0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.4% +2.3
Fire Slice & Dice 0.9% 0
Water Astra Cleric 0.9% 0
Water Crux Mage 0.9% 0
Water Diana 0.9% 0
Water Overlord 0.9% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 63.4% +12.8
Wind Diana 0.9% 0
Wind Neos Tonoris 0.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.6% +13.8
Wind Overlord 0.9% 0
Decklists · 8 from this event

JSON: /api/events/5206/archetypes/Fire Arcane