← Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
Fire ArcaneTier 1
at Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
decks
8
(7.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
49
22-20-7
overall winrate
52.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.5%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1273
· median 1234
· range 1195–1423
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1189
Q3 1367
1685
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 26.3% | 12 | 6-4-2 | 58.3% | 56.2% | 55.4% | +2.3 |
| Slimes | 13.2% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 25.4% | -15.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 5 | 2-1-2 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.7% | +2.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.6% | +6.2 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.0% | -14.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 49.4% | -0.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 65.1% | +11.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +12.8 |
| Wind Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
