← Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
Wind AlliesTier 1
at Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
decks
30
(26.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
143
66-63-14
overall winrate
51.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.0%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
51.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1263
· median 1238
· range 1047–1624
(30 pilots with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1189
Q3 1367
1685
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
30% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.2% | 27 | 17-8-2 | 66.7% | 64.5% | 64.8% | +5.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 18 | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 45.5% | 48.5% | -0.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.0% | 12 | 4-6-2 | 41.7% | 43.8% | 44.6% | -2.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.1% | 12 | 6-4-2 | 58.3% | 56.2% | 55.1% | +2.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 62.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 13 | 5-6-2 | 46.2% | 47.1% | 49.9% | -0.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.3% | 10 | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 52.7% | +1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +2.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 54.8% | +2.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.8% | -1.8 |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 37.4% | -9.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.3% | -8.0 |
| Water Diana | 0.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.9% | +12.6 |
| Water Overlord | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Wind Diana | 0.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.8% | -7.6 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.4% | +14.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.9% | -5.9 |
Decklists · 30 from this event
The 30 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 21 mirror matches (4 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 5 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Hurricane Sweep, Dream Fairy, Deflecting Edge. Losers more often ran: Trained Hawk, Eternal Magistrate, Esteemed Knight.
Hurricane Sweep
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
12, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 6.
Dream Fairy
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
12, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 6.
Deflecting Edge
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
12, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 5.
Windpiercer
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
11, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 7.
Andronika, Eternal Herald
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
11, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 6.
Prototype Pistol
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
10, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 8.
Trained Hawk
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 21 mirrors: the loser ran more in
10, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 7.
Eternal Magistrate
Losing decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
winning decks 3.0.
Of 21 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 8.
Esteemed Knight
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 21 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 14.
Tithe Proclamation
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 21 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 12.
Woodland Squirrels
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 21 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 10.
Reclaim
Losing decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 21 mirrors: the loser ran more in
10, the winner ran more in 6,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 89 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 69 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.43 | 12 | 3 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.43 | 12 | 3 | 6 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.38 | 12 | 4 | 3 | |
| Windpiercer | +0.38 | 11 | 3 | 1 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.33 | 11 | 4 | 6 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.33 | 10 | 3 | 2 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.29 | 4 | 10 | 1 | |
| Cell Vanguard | +0.29 | 9 | 3 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.29 | 9 | 3 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.24 | 8 | 3 | 4 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +0.24 | 9 | 4 | 8 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.24 | 4 | 9 | 8 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.24 | 11 | 6 | 4 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.24 | 7 | 2 | 8 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -0.24 | 1 | 6 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.24 | 2 | 7 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.24 | 3 | 8 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.19 | 6 | 10 | 3 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.19 | 11 | 7 | 2 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.19 | 2 | 6 | 1 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.19 | 2 | 6 | 12 | |
| Rallied Advance | -0.19 | 6 | 10 | 4 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.19 | 3 | 7 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.19 | 4 | 8 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.14 | 6 | 3 | 11 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.14 | 8 | 5 | 6 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.14 | 5 | 8 | 1 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.14 | 10 | 7 | 2 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -0.14 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.14 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | -0.10 | 5 | 7 | 5 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 19 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.10 | 3 | 1 | 17 | |
| Manufacture Cell | +0.10 | 9 | 7 | 4 | |
| Second Wind | +0.10 | 11 | 9 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.10 | 3 | 1 | 17 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.10 | 5 | 3 | 13 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.10 | 4 | 6 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +0.10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Displace | -0.10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Surveillance Stone | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.05 | 7 | 8 | 2 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 20 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.05 | 4 | 3 | 14 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | -0.05 | 3 | 4 | 14 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.05 | 4 | 3 | 13 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -0.05 | 4 | 5 | 11 | |
| Reprogram | -0.05 | 8 | 9 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.05 | 5 | 6 | 10 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Purification | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.05 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.05 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | +0.05 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.05 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.05 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -0.05 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.05 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.05 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.05 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.05 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Synthetic Core | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Outlook | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Weaponsmith | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Plated Bullet | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +0.00 | 10 | 10 | 1 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |