← Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
Water AlliesTier 1
at Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
decks
6
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
39
22-11-6
overall winrate
64.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.2%
avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
57.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1303
· median 1301
· range 1214–1401
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1189
Q3 1367
1685
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 26.3% | 13 | 6-5-2 | 53.8% | 52.9% | 50.1% | +0.0 |
| Slimes | 13.2% | 6 | 2-1-3 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 51.8% | +1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.2% | +13.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.0% | +14.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.2% | -6.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.4% | +9.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +11.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.3 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Water Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
