← Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
Fire Crux HybridTier 2
at Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 26.3% | 12 | 4-6-2 | 41.7% | 43.8% | 44.9% | -2.2 |
| Slimes | 13.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 53.7% | +1.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 40.1% | -6.3 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.3% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 38.8% | -7.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.7% | +11.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Water Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Wind Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freezing Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |