← Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 26.3% | 18 | 9-7-2 | 55.6% | 54.5% | 51.5% | +0.6 |
| Slimes | 13.2% | 10 | 4-2-4 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 53.7% | +1.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.0% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.1% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 46.3% | -1.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.9% | -3.4 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.8% | -13.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.3% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 34.0% | -10.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.1% | +19.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.3% | +6.2 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.6% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -1.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 10 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 10 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |