← Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
decks
1
(0.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.6%
avg ELO +7.2 per match
expected value
53.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1522
· median 1522
· range 1522–1522
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1189
Q3 1367
1685
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 26.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.7% | +8.0 |
| Slimes | 13.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.4 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
