← Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
SlimesTier 2
at Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024
decks
15
(13.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
75
26-39-10
overall winrate
41.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.3%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
43.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1232
· median 1217
· range 1070–1472
(15 pilots with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1189
Q3 1367
1685
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
40% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 26.3% | 27 | 8-17-2 | 33.3% | 35.5% | 35.2% | -5.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 10 | 2-4-4 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 46.3% | -1.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 74.6% | +15.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.5% | -4.8 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 6 | 1-2-3 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 48.2% | -1.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.3% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 45.4% | -2.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 47.1% | -1.9 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.8% | -7.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.6% | +10.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.4% | -11.2 |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Wind Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 15 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Engineered Slime, Vampiric Slime, Tithe Proclamation. Losers more often ran: Hymn of Gaia's Grace, Slimeshield, Green Slime.
Engineered Slime
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Vampiric Slime
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Tithe Proclamation
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Bestial Frenzy
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Ethereal Slime
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 3.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Blissful Calling
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 0.
Hymn of Gaia's Grace
Losing decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Slimeshield
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Green Slime
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Lustrous Slime
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Slime Eruption
Losing decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
winning decks 3.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Verdant Slime
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 53 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | -0.75 | 0 | 6 | 1 | |
| Engineered Slime | +0.62 | 5 | 0 | 2 | |
| Vampiric Slime | +0.50 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.50 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Slimeshield | -0.50 | 1 | 5 | 2 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +0.50 | 5 | 1 | 2 | |
| Green Slime | -0.50 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Lustrous Slime | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Ethereal Slime | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Horn of Beastcalling | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Ordinary Bear | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blissful Calling | +0.25 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Slime's Blessing | +0.25 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Meadowbloom Dryad | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slime Eruption | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Bedivere, Woodland Overseer | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Red Slime | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Verdant Slime | -0.25 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Twilight Slime | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Academy Guide | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Key Slime Pudding | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slime Nexus | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Paws | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Baby Green Slime | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.12 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slime King | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Gather Slimes | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Baby Blue Slime | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Convoking Slime | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |