← Grand Archive Regional Championship! - Forest City Coins
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive Regional Championship! - Forest City Coins.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 4.8% | 12 | 79.2% | 63.7% | 58.6% | 55.9% | 1436 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 3 | 7.1% | 18 | 63.9% | 54.6% | 55.7% | 52.8% | 1348 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Slimes | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 50.0% | 43.8% | 54.5% | 51.7% | 1510 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 8 | 19.0% | 40 | 58.8% | 54.6% | 54.2% | 52.2% | 1316 | — |
| 5 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 7.1% | 18 | 58.3% | 58.1% | 52.4% | 53.1% | 1371 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Slimes | 3 | 7.1% | 15 | 43.3% | 43.8% | 51.3% | 50.2% | 1317 | — |
| 7 | Norm Tera Silvie | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 58.3% | 57.7% | 50.4% | 51.1% | 1210 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Allies | 2 | 4.8% | 12 | 58.3% | 56.8% | 50.4% | 50.9% | 1291 | — |
| 9 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 41.7% | 49.1% | 49.4% | 51.6% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Allies | 6 | 14.3% | 24 | 45.8% | 50.3% | 47.0% | 49.0% | 1195 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Slimes | 3 | 7.1% | 16 | 43.8% | 47.3% | 46.7% | 48.2% | 1261 | — |
| 12 | Water Crux Mage | 2 | 4.8% | 12 | 37.5% | 47.3% | 45.8% | 48.6% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Crux Merlin | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 50.0% | 56.3% | 45.5% | 49.2% | 1205 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 4.8% | 10 | 30.0% | 40.2% | 43.0% | 45.1% | 1158 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Arcane | 3 | 7.1% | 18 | 27.8% | 35.2% | 42.1% | 43.1% | 1118 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Neos | 1 | 2.4% | 5 | 20.0% | 26.8% | 38.6% | 35.3% | 1448 | ↑ top |