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EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Illusive Online Webcam Regionals. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 1.0% 7 92.9% 63.8% 61.9% 56.1% 1307
2 Fire Slimes 5 5.1% 28 64.3% 53.2% 55.5% 51.1% 1358
3 Water Crux Lorraine 1 1.0% 7 78.6% 54.4% 55.0% 51.0% 1536 ↑ top
4 Slimes 13 13.1% 68 55.9% 53.3% 53.8% 52.3% 1390 ↑ top
5 Fire Aggro 5 5.1% 33 59.1% 52.6% 53.5% 51.0% 1304
6 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 1.0% 7 57.1% 52.8% 53.4% 51.5% 1353
7 Fire Crux Mage 9 9.1% 48 51.0% 50.2% 53.3% 51.7% 1306
8 Wind Slimes 3 3.0% 19 60.5% 52.7% 53.3% 50.8% 1439 ↑ top
9 Fire Crux Merlin 1 1.0% 7 35.7% 50.1% 51.6% 52.5% 1239 ↓ low
10 Water Allies 6 6.1% 39 55.1% 52.0% 51.2% 50.6% 1322
11 Wind Umbra Tristan 2 2.0% 10 55.0% 53.7% 51.0% 51.4% 1349
12 Fire Neos 1 1.0% 7 57.1% 52.5% 50.6% 50.6% 1426 ↑ top
13 Fire Luxem Assassin 3 3.0% 15 46.7% 49.4% 49.4% 49.9% 1259 ↓ low
14 Wind Umbra Diana 1 1.0% 7 57.1% 54.2% 49.3% 50.8% 1250 ↓ low
15 Fire Crux Hybrid 10 10.1% 59 41.5% 46.3% 48.0% 48.8% 1270 ↓ low
16 Water Ravishing Mill 6 6.1% 36 38.9% 44.4% 47.3% 48.2% 1319
17 Water Beast 1 1.0% 3 33.3% 48.2% 46.7% 49.1% 1470 ↑ top
18 Wind Shadowstrike 12 12.1% 62 42.7% 46.3% 46.3% 48.0% 1309
19 Fire Arcane 1 1.0% 7 35.7% 49.0% 46.1% 49.2% 1155 ↓ low
20 Wind Allies 15 15.2% 71 45.8% 48.5% 45.8% 48.5% 1338
21 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 1.0% 7 28.6% 44.7% 44.2% 47.8% 1334
22 Wind Diana 1 1.0% 3 0.0% 42.5% 40.0% 46.5% 1175 ↓ low