← Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 4 | 7.5% | 20 | 77.5% | 69.0% | 59.5% | 57.5% | 1309 | — |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 6 | 11.3% | 34 | 61.8% | 63.0% | 57.7% | 58.6% | 1300 | — |
| 3 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 1.9% | 7 | 57.1% | 57.5% | 56.9% | 57.7% | 1073 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Wind Diana | 2 | 3.8% | 12 | 79.2% | 61.0% | 56.0% | 52.7% | 1371 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 3.8% | 8 | 50.0% | 51.9% | 53.2% | 53.1% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 6 | 11.3% | 34 | 54.4% | 45.4% | 52.3% | 47.3% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Neos | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 50.0% | 52.2% | 51.9% | 52.4% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 2 | 3.8% | 9 | 55.6% | 49.9% | 49.0% | 48.1% | 1383 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 1.9% | 7 | 57.1% | 55.3% | 48.3% | 48.4% | 1245 | — |
| 10 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 3.8% | 12 | 54.2% | 57.5% | 47.7% | 49.4% | 1150 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 47.1% | 47.5% | 48.3% | 1138 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 50.0% | 48.3% | 47.3% | 46.6% | 1310 | — |
| 13 | Wind Allies | 4 | 7.5% | 22 | 50.0% | 50.1% | 45.8% | 46.8% | 1242 | — |
| 14 | Slimes | 8 | 15.1% | 36 | 44.4% | 50.9% | 45.8% | 49.3% | 1281 | — |
| 15 | Water Ravishing Mill | 4 | 7.5% | 23 | 41.3% | 39.7% | 45.5% | 44.3% | 1268 | — |
| 16 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 1.9% | 7 | 28.6% | 40.3% | 45.0% | 46.6% | 1021 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Erupting | 2 | 3.8% | 10 | 20.0% | 26.7% | 44.8% | 44.2% | 1228 | — |
| 18 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 50.0% | 52.8% | 44.3% | 45.3% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.9% | 4 | 12.5% | 36.0% | 43.1% | 44.8% | 1064 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Neos | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.9% | 44.4% | 1160 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Water Crux Merlin | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 45.7% | 42.7% | 45.0% | 1006 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Water Lorraine | 1 | 1.9% | 4 | 12.5% | 37.5% | 42.5% | 45.8% | 1223 | — |
| 23 | Fire Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 10.0% | 29.5% | 39.4% | 40.5% | 1167 | ↓ low |