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Fire Crux HybridTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.8% | +14.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.4 |
| Slimes | 8.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.3% | -5.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -19.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.4% | -10.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Water Overlord | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Hybrid decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intangible Geist | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |