← Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals
SlimesTier 1
at Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals
decks
5
(8.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30
14-14-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.3%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1186
· median 1215
· range 991–1354
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1158
Q3 1342
1599
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
40% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.0% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.3% | 7 | 3-2-2 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 56.0% | +3.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 39.6% | -7.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Water Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Water Overlord | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.4 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
