← Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals
Fire EruptingTier 2
at Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals
decks
3
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
4-10-0
overall winrate
28.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.2%
avg ELO -5.7 per match
expected value
44.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1197
· median 1221
· range 1114–1255
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1158
Q3 1342
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.3% | +3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Slimes | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.7% | -9.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Water Overlord | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
