Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Wind Allies	Tier 1	8	14.0%	20-19-5	51.1%	52.4%	50.5%	51.6%	1263	—
2		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	7	12.3%	16-15-7	51.3%	49.0%	51.0%	49.6%	1229	—
3		Slimes	Tier 1	5	8.8%	14-14-2	50.0%	51.3%	48.8%	49.9%	1186	↓ low
4		Fire Slimes	Tier 1	4	7.0%	13-8-4	60.0%	51.7%	52.1%	49.8%	1333	↑ top
5		Wind Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	4	7.0%	10-11-3	47.9%	46.7%	46.7%	46.3%	1370	↑ top
6		Fire Aggro	Tier 1	3	5.3%	12-8-0	60.0%	56.0%	53.5%	52.8%	1348	↑ top
7		Fire Crux Hybrid	Tier 1	3	5.3%	7-6-2	53.3%	53.0%	55.9%	55.2%	1325	↑ top
8		Fire Erupting	Tier 2	3	5.3%	4-10-0	28.6%	36.2%	44.9%	45.7%	1197	—
9		Water Allies	Tier 1	3	5.3%	13-6-3	65.9%	54.1%	51.6%	49.2%	1337	↑ top
10		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	2	3.5%	1-6-1	18.8%	38.3%	41.6%	45.3%	1127	↓ low
11		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 2	2	3.5%	5-4-3	54.2%	53.9%	49.1%	49.4%	1325	↑ top
12		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 2	2	3.5%	6-5-1	54.2%	60.3%	51.3%	54.6%	1151	↓ low
13		Fire Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	1	1.8%	4-2-0	66.7%	56.0%	51.8%	50.5%	1378	↑ top
14		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	1.8%	4-2-0	66.7%	59.8%	50.5%	50.8%	1320	↑ top
15		Fire Neos	Tier 2	1	1.8%	3-2-1	58.3%	48.3%	51.5%	49.6%	1369	↑ top
16		Fire Umbra Ranger	Tier 3	1	1.8%	1-4-0	20.0%	35.5%	41.0%	41.9%	1158	↓ low
17		Water Lorraine	Tier 2	1	1.8%	2-4-0	33.3%	41.0%	51.1%	50.8%	1169	↓ low
18		Water Overlord	Tier 3	1	1.8%	2-3-1	41.7%	47.1%	46.3%	47.8%	1189	↓ low
19		Water Umbra Diana	Tier 3	1	1.8%	2-4-0	33.3%	47.5%	43.5%	46.1%	1126	↓ low
20		Wind Crux Mage	Tier 3	1	1.8%	1-4-1	25.0%	45.3%	43.3%	47.2%	1035	↓ low
21		Wind Neos Tonoris	Tier 3	1	1.8%	1-5-0	16.7%	35.1%	45.8%	47.1%	1080	↓ low
22		Wind Slimes	Tier 2	1	1.8%	4-1-2	71.4%	62.4%	56.7%	55.6%	1458	↑ top
23		Wind Tera Silvie	Tier 2	1	1.8%	2-4-0	33.3%	47.2%	48.1%	50.0%	957	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Wind Allies 8 decks · 14.0%
• Wind Shadowstrike 7 decks · 12.3%
• Slimes 5 decks · 8.8%
• Fire Slimes 4 decks · 7.0%
• Wind Crux Lorraine 4 decks · 7.0%
• Fire Aggro 3 decks · 5.3%
• Fire Crux Hybrid 3 decks · 5.3%
• Fire Erupting 3 decks · 5.3%
• Water Allies 3 decks · 5.3%
• Fire Arcane 2 decks · 3.5%
• Fire Crux Mage 2 decks · 3.5%
• Water Ravishing Mill 2 decks · 3.5%
• Fire Crux Lorraine 1 deck · 1.8%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 1.8%
• Fire Neos 1 deck · 1.8%
• Fire Umbra Ranger 1 deck · 1.8%
• Water Lorraine 1 deck · 1.8%
• Water Overlord 1 deck · 1.8%
• Water Umbra Diana 1 deck · 1.8%
• Wind Crux Mage 1 deck · 1.8%
• Wind Neos Tonoris 1 deck · 1.8%
• Wind Slimes 1 deck · 1.8%
• Wind Tera Silvie 1 deck · 1.8%