← Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals
Water LorraineTier 2
at Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals
decks
1
(1.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.0%
avg ELO -4.8 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1169
· median 1169
· range 1169–1169
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1158
Q3 1342
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.6 |
| Slimes | 8.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
