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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -3.0 |
| Slimes | 8.8% | 7 | 2-3-2 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 44.0% | -3.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.0% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 57.5% | +4.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.9% | -2.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.5% | -4.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.9% | +7.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.6 |
| Water Overlord | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Sable Remnant, Swift Recruit. Losers more often ran: Slice and Dice, Dungeon Guide, Reprogram.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Mantle | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Sharpen Blade | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Reprogram | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Zephyr | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Corhazi Outlook | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extortion Scheme | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sirocco Operative | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow Resonance | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Spy | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |