← Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals
decks
2
(3.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-5-1
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.3%
avg ELO +4.4 per match
expected value
51.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1151
· median 1151
· range 1091–1211
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1158
Q3 1342
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.1% | -7.5 |
| Slimes | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Water Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
