← Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals
decks
2
(3.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-4-3
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.9%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1325
· median 1325
· range 1051–1599
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1158
Q3 1342
1599
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Slimes | 8.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -7.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +19.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.3% | +26.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
