← Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals
Fire SlimesTier 1
at Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals
decks
4
(7.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25
13-8-4
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.7%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1333
· median 1341
· range 1283–1368
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1158
Q3 1342
1599
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.3% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 42.5% | -4.3 |
| Slimes | 8.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 60.4% | +7.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.3% | +9.9 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.1% | -7.4 |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
