← Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals
Water AlliesTier 1
at Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals
decks
3
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
13-6-3
overall winrate
65.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.1%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
51.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1337
· median 1281
· range 1219–1513
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1158
Q3 1342
1599
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.1% | +2.3 |
| Slimes | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.7% | -26.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.1% | +6.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +4.9 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.3% | +4.1 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
