EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 貓腳印高雄店 台灣南部地區 R 賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 47.1% | 59.0% | 53.8% | 1486 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 71.4% | 54.1% | 58.5% | 51.6% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 4 | 5.0% | 28 | 64.3% | 54.9% | 56.8% | 52.2% | 1330 | — |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 2.5% | 14 | 60.7% | 59.4% | 56.3% | 56.5% | 1316 | — |
| 5 | Water Ravishing Mill | 4 | 5.0% | 26 | 67.3% | 61.0% | 55.5% | 54.8% | 1361 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Allies | 3 | 3.8% | 19 | 57.9% | 52.5% | 55.3% | 54.7% | 1348 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 5 | 6.2% | 30 | 65.0% | 58.0% | 54.7% | 51.3% | 1388 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Arcane | 5 | 6.2% | 33 | 65.2% | 66.2% | 52.6% | 55.1% | 1309 | — |
| 9 | Slimes | 21 | 26.2% | 96 | 53.1% | 52.5% | 51.7% | 51.2% | 1285 | — |
| 10 | Wind Beast | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 52.4% | 50.0% | 48.7% | 1300 | — |
| 11 | Wind Allies | 8 | 10.0% | 50 | 44.0% | 43.3% | 49.2% | 48.0% | 1253 | — |
| 12 | Water Umbra Diana | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 50.0% | 49.6% | 47.6% | 47.5% | 1122 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Astra Cleric | 2 | 2.5% | 13 | 30.8% | 42.0% | 45.0% | 48.8% | 1336 | — |
| 14 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 3.8% | 17 | 38.2% | 43.8% | 44.9% | 44.8% | 1219 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Shadowstrike | 12 | 15.0% | 59 | 39.0% | 44.2% | 43.0% | 46.0% | 1255 | — |
| 16 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 35.7% | 50.1% | 42.7% | 46.1% | 1241 | — |
| 17 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 3.8% | 13 | 38.5% | 51.3% | 42.6% | 46.5% | 1083 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Erupting | 1 | 1.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.7% | 41.0% | 41.9% | 1089 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 1.2% | 3 | 0.0% | 29.1% | 40.0% | 40.5% | 1076 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 1.2% | 5 | 10.0% | 28.0% | 37.3% | 37.3% | 1543 | ↑ top |
| 21 | Water Neos | 1 | 1.2% | 6 | 16.7% | 33.2% | 36.8% | 38.8% | 1110 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Norm Tera Silvie | 1 | 1.2% | 6 | 0.0% | 23.3% | 34.2% | 36.0% | 1053 | ↓ low |