EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at NorCal Regionals 2024.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Vanitas | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 85.7% | 62.1% | 59.9% | 55.1% | 1561 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 7 | 7.0% | 36 | 58.3% | 51.5% | 57.8% | 54.0% | 1471 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 3.0% | 17 | 55.9% | 52.2% | 55.1% | 54.5% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Slimes | 23 | 23.0% | 117 | 57.3% | 55.1% | 54.6% | 53.3% | 1331 | — |
| 5 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 71.4% | 61.6% | 54.5% | 53.0% | 1352 | — |
| 6 | Fire Erupting | 2 | 2.0% | 10 | 55.0% | 52.2% | 54.5% | 53.0% | 1218 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 56.4% | 53.6% | 54.7% | 1263 | — |
| 8 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 48.5% | 52.5% | 52.3% | 1134 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Crux Mage | 8 | 8.0% | 48 | 51.0% | 50.6% | 51.6% | 51.5% | 1338 | — |
| 10 | Fire Slimes | 3 | 3.0% | 19 | 47.4% | 55.4% | 49.7% | 53.2% | 1151 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Shadowstrike | 12 | 12.0% | 68 | 50.0% | 48.9% | 48.7% | 48.4% | 1322 | — |
| 12 | Wind Diana | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 35.7% | 45.5% | 48.5% | 50.8% | 1223 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Ravishing Mill | 9 | 9.0% | 55 | 55.5% | 55.9% | 48.4% | 49.6% | 1327 | — |
| 14 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 57.0% | 48.4% | 49.7% | 1484 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Wind Astra Arisanna | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 45.7% | 46.7% | 46.8% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 2.0% | 10 | 40.0% | 54.0% | 45.9% | 49.2% | 1132 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Beast | 3 | 3.0% | 20 | 47.5% | 42.4% | 45.6% | 43.8% | 1337 | — |
| 18 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 21.4% | 32.7% | 45.4% | 46.1% | 1116 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.0% | 6 | 25.0% | 39.9% | 43.0% | 45.5% | 1407 | ↑ top |
| 20 | Water Astra Arisanna | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 28.6% | 32.1% | 41.9% | 39.7% | 1447 | ↑ top |
| 21 | Wind Allies | 8 | 8.0% | 44 | 43.2% | 46.4% | 41.9% | 44.4% | 1235 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 1.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 34.8% | 41.7% | 43.8% | 1335 | — |
| 23 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 1.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 51.5% | 41.6% | 45.2% | 1323 | — |
| 24 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 1.0% | 6 | 16.7% | 35.6% | 40.7% | 41.7% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Wind Neos | 1 | 1.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 30.7% | 40.0% | 41.7% | 1263 | — |
| 26 | Water Allies | 2 | 2.0% | 12 | 20.8% | 38.4% | 39.9% | 45.8% | 1185 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 43.8% | 38.8% | 39.3% | 1432 | ↑ top |
| 28 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 3 | 3.0% | 16 | 46.9% | 47.4% | 37.1% | 40.9% | 1308 | — |