← Grand Archive TCG - North American Nationals
Fire AggroTier 1
at Grand Archive TCG - North American Nationals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 20.2% | 17 | 1-14-2 | 11.8% | 19.0% | 14.9% | -13.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 13.5% | 14 | 11-3-0 | 78.6% | 72.2% | 76.9% | +11.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.0% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 44.2% | -2.7 |
| Wind Allies | 9.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 50.6% | +0.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.7% | +10.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.7% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 57.5% | +3.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.5% | -4.1 |
| Rogue | 3.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 64.5% | +9.3 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 27.0% | -17.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.5% | +17.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 74.4% | +18.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.1% | +4.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Wind Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kingdom Informant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Tear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Arsonist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |