← Grand Archive TCG - North American Nationals

Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1

at Grand Archive TCG - North American Nationals

decks
18 (11.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
126 59-58-9
overall winrate
50.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.0% avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
49.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1368 · median 1361 · range 1083–1656 (18 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000 Q1 1200 Q3 1425 1736
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Allies 20.2% 26 14-10-2 57.7% 56.7% 56.2% +2.3
Fire Erupting 13.5% 20 5-14-1 27.5% 31.2% 28.4% -8.3
Wind Allies 9.2% 11 6-4-1 59.1% 56.7% 59.9% +4.3
Fire Crux Mage 7.4% 15 6-9-0 40.0% 42.1% 41.7% -3.4
Fire Aggro 6.7% 9 5-4-0 55.6% 53.8% 55.8% +2.7
Fire Arcane 4.9% 11 4-7-0 36.4% 40.0% 36.5% -5.9
Fire Umbra Ranger 3.7% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 27.3% -16.9
Wind Crux Lorraine 3.7% 7 4-1-2 71.4% 63.6% 66.7% +8.4
Rogue 3.1% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 73.6% +17.6
Water Umbra Ranger 1.8% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 34.0% -15.4
Fire Crux Hybrid 1.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 52.7% +2.6
Fire Crux Lorraine 1.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 70.0% +19.2
Fire Lorraine 1.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.9% +16.2
Water Astra Cleric 1.2% 0
Water Crux Mage 1.2% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 58.9% +6.6
Water Luxem Assassin 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.3% -10.7
Wind Crux Mage 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.4% +18.2
Wind Neos 1.2% 0
Fire Astra Cleric 0.6% 0
Fire Neos 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.2% -20.4
Fire Triskit 0.6% 0
Water Arcane 0.6% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 60.7% +10.3
Water Luxem Zander 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.2% +17.9
Water Neos 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.2% +18.0
Water Tera Silvie 0.6% 0
Water Umbra Diana 0.6% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 0.6% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.5% +0.8
Wind Beast 0.6% 0
Wind Crux Hybrid 0.6% 0
Wind Tera Silvie 0.6% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 60.1% +9.7
Decklists · 18 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 6 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Chalice of Blood, Water Resonance Bauble, Spirit of Serene Water. Losers more often ran: Stalwart Shieldmate, Orb of Choking Fumes, Uther, Illustrious King.

Played more by winners
Chalice of Blood
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 3.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 3.
Spirit of Serene Water
Winning decks ran 0.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 3.
Fracturize
Winning decks ran 2.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 3.
Oasis Trading Post
Winning decks ran 0.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 3.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Played more by losers
Stalwart Shieldmate
Losing decks ran 3.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 3.
Orb of Choking Fumes
Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 3.
Uther, Illustrious King
Losing decks ran 0.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 3.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Stalwart Shieldmate -0.50 0 3 3
Orb of Choking Fumes -0.50 0 3 3
Chalice of Blood +0.50 3 0 3
Water Resonance Bauble +0.50 3 0 0
Spirit of Serene Water +0.50 3 0 0
Fracturize +0.50 3 0 0
Oasis Trading Post +0.50 3 0 0
Fire Resonance Bauble +0.33 3 1 2
Spurn to Ash -0.33 0 2 2
Scavenging Raccoon -0.33 0 2 0
Morgan, Soul Guide -0.33 0 2 0
Orb of Regret -0.33 0 2 2
Meltdown -0.33 0 2 0
Resolute Stand +0.17 1 0 5
Focused Flames +0.17 1 0 5
Excalibur, Cleansing Light +0.17 2 1 3
Serum of Wisdom +0.17 1 0 4
Fast Cure +0.17 2 1 3
Scry the Skies +0.17 1 0 5
Quicksilver Grail +0.17 1 0 5
Gawain, Chivalrous Thief +0.17 3 2 1
Juggle Knives +0.17 1 0 5
Uther, Illustrious King -0.17 1 2 0
Ignited Stab -0.17 0 1 0
Tithe Proclamation -0.17 0 1 0
Uncover the Plot +0.00 1 1 4
Uncover the plot +0.00 1 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.00 1 1 1

JSON: /api/events/951/archetypes/Fire Luxem Assassin