← Grand Archive TCG - North American Nationals
Fire EruptingTier 1
at Grand Archive TCG - North American Nationals
decks
22
(13.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
153
71-70-12
overall winrate
50.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.9%
avg ELO -0.0 per match
expected value
48.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1342
· median 1349
· range 1000–1637
(22 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1200
Q3 1425
1736
41% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
23% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 20.2% | 39 | 14-19-6 | 43.6% | 44.2% | 39.9% | -3.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.0% | 20 | 14-5-1 | 72.5% | 68.8% | 71.6% | +8.3 |
| Wind Allies | 9.2% | 15 | 10-5-0 | 66.7% | 63.2% | 66.6% | +6.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 13 | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 44.1% | 46.5% | -1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 14 | 3-11-0 | 21.4% | 27.8% | 23.1% | -11.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 24.5% | -19.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.1% | -21.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -4.1 |
| Rogue | 3.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.9% | +8.3 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 44.9% | -2.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.9% | -7.5 |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 61.2% | +6.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Wind Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.5% | +17.8 |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -18.0 |
| Fire Triskit | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Water Arcane | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.9% | +21.0 |
| Water Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Beast | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.8% | +7.5 |
Decklists · 22 from this event
The 22 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 9 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Discordia, Harp of Malice, Sword of Adversity, Flame Sweep. Losers more often ran: Focused Flames, Merlin, Kingslayer, Merlin, Memory Thief.
Discordia, Harp of Malice
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Sword of Adversity
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Flame Sweep
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Lorraine, Blademaster
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Cemetery Sentry
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Clumsy Apprentice
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Focused Flames
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Merlin, Kingslayer
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Merlin, Memory Thief
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Fireball
Losing decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
winning decks 2.9.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Exorcise Curses
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Show all 83 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 63 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discordia, Harp of Malice | +0.56 | 5 | 0 | 2 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.44 | 2 | 6 | 1 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +0.44 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.44 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.44 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cemetery Sentry | +0.33 | 4 | 1 | 4 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.33 | 1 | 4 | 4 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.33 | 1 | 4 | 4 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.33 | 4 | 1 | 4 | |
| Fireball | -0.33 | 1 | 4 | 4 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.33 | 3 | 0 | 6 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.33 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | -0.33 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 7 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.22 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| Channeling Stone | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 7 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Elysian Astrolabe | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Arisanna, Astral Zenith | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rai, Spellcrafter | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Erupting Rhapsody | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Library Witch | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Warcry | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ordinary Bear | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Melodious Flute | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allen, Beast Beckoner | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Steady Verse | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Raze the Land | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embertail Squirrel | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Direwolf | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Mending | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Empowering Harmony | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bedivere, Woodland Overseer | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Slime | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebreak Chorus | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Capricious Lynx | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Innervate Fury | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Manic Zealot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jewel of Enlightenment | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cosmic Astroscope | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |