← Grand Archive TCG - North American Nationals

Fire Crux MageTier 1

at Grand Archive TCG - North American Nationals

decks
12 (7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
85 45-37-3
overall winrate
54.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.3% avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
52.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1365 · median 1366 · range 1200–1526 (12 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000 Q1 1200 Q3 1425 1736
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 8% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Allies 20.2% 21 10-9-2 52.4% 52.0% 52.0% +0.7
Fire Erupting 13.5% 13 7-5-1 57.7% 55.9% 53.5% +1.4
Fire Luxem Assassin 11.0% 15 9-6-0 60.0% 57.9% 58.3% +3.4
Wind Allies 9.2% 7 3-4-0 42.9% 45.5% 45.2% -2.4
Fire Aggro 6.7% 7 4-3-0 57.1% 54.5% 49.4% -0.3
Fire Arcane 4.9% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 54.4% +3.3
Fire Umbra Ranger 3.7% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 30.0% -12.8
Wind Crux Lorraine 3.7% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.5% +15.9
Rogue 3.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.7% -2.2
Water Umbra Ranger 1.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 36.4% -21.8
Fire Crux Hybrid 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.2% +13.2
Fire Crux Lorraine 1.2% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 52.8% +2.1
Fire Lorraine 1.2% 0
Water Astra Cleric 1.2% 0
Water Crux Mage 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 36.3% -22.0
Water Luxem Assassin 1.2% 0
Wind Crux Mage 1.2% 0
Wind Neos 1.2% 0
Fire Astra Cleric 0.6% 0
Fire Neos 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.7% -19.7
Fire Triskit 0.6% 0
Water Arcane 0.6% 0
Water Luxem Zander 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.5% +13.5
Water Neos 0.6% 0
Water Tera Silvie 0.6% 0
Water Umbra Diana 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.5% +13.6
Wind Astra Cleric 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.7% +18.7
Wind Beast 0.6% 0
Wind Crux Hybrid 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.8% -17.9
Wind Tera Silvie 0.6% 0
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Focused Flames, Disintegrate. Losers more often ran: Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Flame-Rune Swordsman, Cremation Ritual.

Played more by winners
Focused Flames
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Disintegrate
Winning decks ran 1.8 copies on average, losing decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Played more by losers
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 1.8 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Flame-Rune Swordsman
Losing decks ran 3.2 copies on average, winning decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 2.8 copies on average, winning decks 3.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 3.8 copies on average, winning decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Incendiary Fractal
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Fire Resonance Bauble +0.50 2 0 1
Incarnate Majesty -0.50 0 2 2
Honorable Vanguard -0.50 0 2 1
Scry the Skies +0.50 2 0 0
Chilling Touch +0.50 2 0 0
Flame Sweep -0.50 0 2 0
Resolute Stand +0.25 1 0 3
Increasing Danger +0.25 1 0 0
Exorcise Curses -0.25 0 1 3
Focused Flames +0.25 2 1 1
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.25 1 2 1
Flame-Rune Swordsman -0.25 1 2 1
Crux Sight +0.25 1 0 2
Stalwart Shieldmate -0.25 0 1 3
Disintegrate +0.25 2 1 1
Sudden Steel -0.25 0 1 1
Cremation Ritual -0.25 1 2 1
Spark Alight -0.25 0 1 1
Hasty Messenger -0.25 1 2 1
Safeguard Amulet +0.25 1 0 2
Spirit Blade: Ascension +0.25 1 0 1
Quicksilver Grail +0.25 1 0 3
Tariff Ring +0.25 1 0 3
Scatter Essence +0.25 1 0 0
Azure Protective Trinket -0.25 0 1 0
Incendiary Fractal -0.25 1 2 0
Fracturize -0.25 0 1 0
Refracting Missile -0.25 0 1 0
Purge in Flames +0.25 1 0 0
Sword of Adversity -0.25 0 1 0
Rai, Spellcrafter +0.25 1 0 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -0.25 0 1 0
Ornamental Greatsword -0.25 0 1 0
Crimson Protective Trinket -0.25 0 1 0
Tempered Steel -0.25 0 1 0
Library Witch -0.25 0 1 1
Embersong +0.25 1 0 0
Erupting Rhapsody +0.25 1 0 0
Chalice of Blood -0.25 0 1 0
Devastating Blow +0.00 1 1 2
Vanish from Sight +0.00 1 1 0
Fast Cure +0.00 1 1 1

JSON: /api/events/951/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage