← Grand Archive TCG - North American Nationals
Water AlliesTier 1
at Grand Archive TCG - North American Nationals
decks
33
(20.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
207
108-77-22
overall winrate
57.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.2%
avg ELO +3.0 per match
expected value
55.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1323
· median 1298
· range 1076–1678
(33 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1200
Q3 1425
1736
24% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
21% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 13.5% | 39 | 19-14-6 | 56.4% | 55.8% | 60.1% | +3.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.0% | 26 | 10-14-2 | 42.3% | 43.3% | 43.8% | -2.3 |
| Wind Allies | 9.2% | 16 | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 65.0% | 68.0% | +7.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 21 | 9-10-2 | 47.6% | 48.0% | 48.0% | -0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 17 | 14-1-2 | 88.2% | 81.0% | 85.1% | +13.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.9% | 14 | 9-4-1 | 67.9% | 63.9% | 68.7% | +7.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.7% | 11 | 7-3-1 | 68.2% | 63.3% | 63.5% | +5.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 46.1% | -2.0 |
| Rogue | 3.1% | 9 | 4-3-2 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 55.3% | +2.4 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +5.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.1% | -7.4 |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 7 | 2-3-2 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 43.3% | -3.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.8% | -12.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 33.6% | -12.3 |
| Wind Neos | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.8% | +16.2 |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.6 |
| Fire Triskit | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Water Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Water Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -4.7 |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Beast | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.6% | -9.0 |
Decklists · 33 from this event
The 33 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
-
cactus
-
Ferrenthian
-
DuckHats
-
Killydis
-
AndyK
-
Modestmewtwo
-
baniRien
-
Guruthos
-
WongFuPanda
-
SleightofHam
-
DoDoBird
-
Broel
-
Yoitsu
-
LBSteve
-
BigNickleEye
-
Soosheep
-
Chubster
-
NeutralEnd
-
Drakenfort
-
Vahallo
-
Valkyrie
-
DangerMoose
-
Brytwing
-
Ain
-
yomojoho
-
Riddallk
-
Roomba
-
TCGeo
-
Ludidimus
-
SugarrBrownBear
-
jogamijo
-
FatNinja
-
Deushache
Mirror Analysis
In 25 mirror matches (4 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 5 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Dungeon Guide, Sword of Seeking, Stillwater Patrol. Losers more often ran: Heavy Swing, Tonoris, Genesis Aegis, Tithe Proclamation.
Dungeon Guide
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.9.
Of 25 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 14.
Sword of Seeking
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 25 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 14.
Stillwater Patrol
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 25 mirrors: the winner ran more in
12, the loser ran more in 7,
both ran the same in 6.
Savage Slash
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 25 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 15.
Ghosts of Pendragon
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 25 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 16.
Lorraine, Spirit Ruler
Winning decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 25 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 16.
Heavy Swing
Losing decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 25 mirrors: the loser ran more in
11, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 11.
Tonoris, Genesis Aegis
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 25 mirrors: the loser ran more in
10, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 13.
Tithe Proclamation
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 25 mirrors: the loser ran more in
10, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 11.
Tonoris, Might of Humanity
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 25 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 13.
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 25 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 13.
Bulwark Sword
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 25 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 13.
Show all 105 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 85 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Swing | -0.32 | 3 | 11 | 3 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | -0.32 | 2 | 10 | 2 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.24 | 4 | 10 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.24 | 3 | 9 | 4 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.24 | 3 | 9 | 5 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.24 | 3 | 9 | 5 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.20 | 8 | 3 | 12 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.20 | 8 | 3 | 5 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +0.20 | 12 | 7 | 2 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.20 | 5 | 10 | 2 | |
| Savage Slash | +0.16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.16 | 1 | 5 | 17 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.16 | 4 | 8 | 1 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | -0.16 | 3 | 7 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.12 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.12 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.12 | 9 | 6 | 5 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -0.12 | 6 | 9 | 6 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.12 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.12 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| deflecting edge | +0.12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.12 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +0.12 | 6 | 3 | 16 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | |
| Frostbind | -0.08 | 2 | 4 | 19 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.08 | 7 | 5 | 6 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.08 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +0.08 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
| Fracturize | +0.08 | 5 | 3 | 17 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.08 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | +0.08 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Drowned Cut | +0.08 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.08 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.08 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.08 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Diffusive Block | -0.08 | 5 | 7 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.08 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | -0.08 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.08 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Hypothermia | +0.08 | 6 | 4 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -0.08 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.08 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | +0.08 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +0.08 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.04 | 3 | 4 | 18 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.04 | 9 | 8 | 4 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.04 | 2 | 1 | 22 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.04 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | -0.04 | 9 | 10 | 5 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.04 | 9 | 8 | 8 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.04 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | +0.04 | 6 | 5 | 0 | |
| Amorphous Strike | -0.04 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| shroud in mist | +0.04 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | +0.04 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.04 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +0.04 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | +0.04 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | +0.04 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.04 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | +0.04 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tidal Sweep | +0.04 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +0.04 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tasershot | -0.04 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | +0.04 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cascading Round | +0.04 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.04 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guarded Dissipation | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Knowledge | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.04 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backstep | -0.04 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | -0.04 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 23 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 23 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 23 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 23 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 19 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 23 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 21 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 6 | 6 | 8 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.00 | 8 | 8 | 4 | |
| Archon Broadsword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Round | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tide Diviner | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Invigorated Slash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |