← Grand Archive TCG - North American Nationals
Water Umbra RangerTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG - North American Nationals
decks
3
(1.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26
14-10-2
overall winrate
57.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.7%
avg ELO +4.3 per match
expected value
53.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1236
· median 1321
· range 1038–1349
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1200
Q3 1425
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 20.2% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -5.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 13.5% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 55.1% | +2.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.0% | +15.4 |
| Wind Allies | 9.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.2% | +5.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 73.0% | +17.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Wind Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.5% | +24.8 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
