← Grand Archive TCG - North American Nationals
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG - North American Nationals
decks
2
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
8-7-3
overall winrate
52.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.2%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1374
· median 1374
· range 1212–1536
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1200
Q3 1425
1736
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 20.2% | 7 | 3-2-2 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 56.7% | +3.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 13.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.1% | -6.6 |
| Wind Allies | 9.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +22.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.5% | -10.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.7 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
