← Grand Archive TCG - North American Nationals

Fire Umbra RangerTier 2

at Grand Archive TCG - North American Nationals

decks
6 (3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
48 22-23-3
overall winrate
49.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3% avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
52.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1293 · median 1267 · range 1091–1587 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000 Q1 1200 Q3 1425 1736
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Allies 20.2% 11 3-7-1 31.8% 36.7% 36.5% -5.9
Fire Erupting 13.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 72.9% +21.9
Fire Luxem Assassin 11.0% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 72.7% +16.9
Wind Allies 9.2% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 58.0% +5.9
Fire Crux Mage 7.4% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 70.0% +12.8
Fire Aggro 6.7% 8 3-5-0 37.5% 41.7% 42.5% -3.6
Fire Arcane 4.9% 6 3-3-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.3% -0.9
Wind Crux Lorraine 3.7% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 45.5% -2.9
Rogue 3.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.4% -18.6
Water Umbra Ranger 1.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.5% +0.8
Fire Crux Hybrid 1.2% 0
Fire Crux Lorraine 1.2% 0
Fire Lorraine 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.5% +15.2
Water Astra Cleric 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.0% +12.7
Water Crux Mage 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.1% -19.0
Water Luxem Assassin 1.2% 0
Wind Crux Mage 1.2% 0
Wind Neos 1.2% 0
Fire Astra Cleric 0.6% 0
Fire Neos 0.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 29.9% -19.3
Fire Triskit 0.6% 0
Water Arcane 0.6% 0
Water Luxem Zander 0.6% 0
Water Neos 0.6% 0
Water Tera Silvie 0.6% 0
Water Umbra Diana 0.6% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 0.6% 0
Wind Beast 0.6% 0
Wind Crux Hybrid 0.6% 0
Wind Tera Silvie 0.6% 0
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Flash Grenade -1.00 0 1 0
Penetrator Round -1.00 0 1 0
Seeker's Rifle +1.00 1 0 0
Evasive Maneuvers -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Focused Flames +1.00 1 0 0
Umbral Tithe +1.00 1 0 0
Gloamspire Lance -1.00 0 1 0
Umbra Sight -1.00 0 1 0
Deploy Gunshield +1.00 1 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -1.00 0 1 0
Airship Engineer -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern +1.00 1 0 0
Fast Cure +1.00 1 0 0
False Step -1.00 0 1 0
Spark Alight +1.00 1 0 0
Hasty Messenger +1.00 1 0 0
Airship Cannoneer +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Quicksilver Grail +1.00 1 0 0
Reposition -1.00 0 1 0
Mindbreak Bullet +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Library Witch -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/951/archetypes/Fire Umbra Ranger