Fire Crux MageTier 1
at 20241229 RL
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.4% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 57.2% | +3.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -2.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 47.9% | -1.3 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 39.3% | -5.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 6 | 5-0-1 | 91.7% | 75.0% | 71.1% | +11.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.8% | -3.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.2% | -15.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -2.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Library Witch, Mnemonic Charm, Gentle Respite. Losers more often ran: Spark Alight, Fast Cure, Orb of Sealing.
Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fireball | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fracturize | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Attack | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |