Water AlliesTier 2
at 20241229 RL
decks
1
(1.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-2-1
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.7%
avg ELO +4.9 per match
expected value
51.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1352
· median 1352
· range 1352–1352
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1016
Q1 1227
Q3 1382
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.8% | +15.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.6% | -6.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
