Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at 20241229 RL
decks
4
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
6-13-2
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.4%
avg ELO -3.7 per match
expected value
46.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1279
· median 1272
· range 1144–1427
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1016
Q1 1227
Q3 1382
1694
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 64.0% | +9.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.3% | -18.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.2 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Wind Neos | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
