Fire SlimesTier 2
at 20241229 RL
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 44.4% | -4.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 9 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 9 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |