Wind AlliesTier 1
at 20241229 RL
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.4% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +3.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 60.7% | +5.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 55.8% | +3.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 59.0% | +6.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.9% | -17.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.9% | -5.8 |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Incapacitate, Second Wind.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rallied Advance | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Winbless Gatekeeper | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Attune with the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unrelenting Warden | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Windpiercer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |