SlimesTier 2
at 20241229 RL
decks
14
(19.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
64
26-31-7
overall winrate
46.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.2%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
46.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1244
· median 1254
· range 1096–1396
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
1016
Q1 1227
Q3 1382
1694
7% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
36% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 42.8% | -3.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 59.7% | +4.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.7% | 12 | 6-4-2 | 58.3% | 56.2% | 63.5% | +5.8 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -3.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 44.2% | -2.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +1.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.0% | -9.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 31.3% | -12.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.2% | +14.6 |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -3.4 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 62.0% | +8.9 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 14 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Slime's Blessing, Lustrous Slime. Losers more often ran: Gaia's Songbird, Baby Blue Slime, Reprogram.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Slime's Blessing
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Lustrous Slime
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Mystic Purifier
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Escape the Wreckage
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 3.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Gaia's Songbird
Losing decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Baby Blue Slime
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Reprogram
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Scavenging Raccoon
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Slime's Blessing | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lustrous Slime | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 3 | |
| Baby Blue Slime | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blissful Calling | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| Kind Beastcaller | +0.12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.12 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Slime Eruption | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Invective Instruction | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Engineered Slime | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slime King | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Royal Bear | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdant Slime | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Tera | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdant Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Twilight Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |