Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at 20241229 RL
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.4% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 40.3% | -4.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +2.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.7% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 67.0% | +9.8 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 44.2% | -3.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.1% | +7.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 55.6% | +4.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.4% | +6.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Wind Neos | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.4 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Seaside Ringleader, Primordial Ritual, Glacial Evocation. Losers more often ran: Song of Frost, Snow Fairy, Tideholder Claymore.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Diffusive Block | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Glacial Guidance | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |