Water Penguin MillTier 2
at 20241229 RL
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.4% | 12 | 4-6-2 | 41.7% | 43.8% | 36.5% | -5.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 52.1% | +1.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 33.0% | -9.8 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 32.6% | -11.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.1% | -23.9 |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 4 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Torrential Blast | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Spirit of Water | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Frostbind | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |