Water Crux MageTier 2
at 20241229 RL
decks
1
(1.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-3-0
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.5%
avg ELO +2.8 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1338
· median 1338
· range 1338–1338
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1016
Q1 1227
Q3 1382
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +2.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
