EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Illusive TCG Online Regionals . EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Ravishing Mill

55.6%

10.0% share · 48 matches

12.2% share · 61 matches

3rd

Fire Exia

53.6%

1.1% share · 7 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Penguin Mill	11	12.2%	61	63.9%	54.7%	57.7%	52.1%	1380	—
2	Water Ravishing Mill	9	10.0%	48	59.4%	54.1%	55.6%	52.4%	1453	↑ top
3	Fire Exia	1	1.1%	7	71.4%	57.4%	53.6%	52.5%	1426	—
4	Wind Crux Mage	1	1.1%	7	50.0%	39.4%	52.1%	46.1%	1638	↑ top
5	Wind Astra Cleric	8	8.9%	41	53.7%	49.5%	50.8%	49.8%	1420	—
6	Wind Razorgale	7	7.8%	43	57.0%	51.9%	50.6%	49.6%	1399	—
7	Water Allies	3	3.3%	18	47.2%	47.2%	50.6%	49.4%	1356	—
8	Water Umbra Ranger	1	1.1%	7	42.9%	44.6%	50.2%	48.8%	1419	—
9	Water Luxem Assassin	1	1.1%	5	50.0%	46.9%	49.4%	48.3%	1638	↑ top
10	Wind Slimes	2	2.2%	10	55.0%	45.7%	48.9%	47.8%	1431	—
11	Water Tera Kongming	2	2.2%	9	38.9%	49.1%	48.6%	49.8%	1254	↓ low
12	Wind Allies	9	10.0%	48	49.0%	50.7%	48.3%	49.5%	1360	—
13	Fire Slimes	6	6.7%	32	39.1%	45.3%	47.0%	48.8%	1281	↓ low
14	Slimes	12	13.3%	61	45.9%	50.4%	46.4%	49.7%	1361	—
15	Wind Shadowstrike	6	6.7%	35	45.7%	48.1%	45.8%	48.4%	1388	—
16	Fire Aggro	5	5.6%	24	41.7%	47.2%	45.7%	47.9%	1397	—
17	Water Silvie	1	1.1%	6	41.7%	50.3%	44.9%	48.7%	1198	↓ low
18	Fire Crux Mage	3	3.3%	19	36.8%	48.3%	43.4%	49.0%	1214	↓ low
19	Water Diana	2	2.2%	14	28.6%	47.9%	41.8%	48.7%	1154	↓ low
20	Water Kongming	1	1.1%	5	20.0%	45.6%	41.6%	47.5%	1268	↓ low