Fire Crux HybridTier 1

at SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby

decks

10 (12.5% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

64 30-30-4

overall winrate

50.0%

ELO-adjusted winrate

49.8% avg ELO -0.1 per match

expected value

52.0% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

51.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill ↑ top

mean ELO 1444 · median 1433 · range 1321–1619 (10 pilots with an ELO rating)

1087 Q1 1250 Q3 1450 1730

40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Wind Allies	16.2%	11	8-3-0	72.7%	66.7%	69.0%	+8.3
Fire Luxem Assassin	12.5%	11	5-4-2	54.5%	53.3%	52.6%	+1.1
Fire Aggro	10.0%	4	1-2-1	37.5%	43.8%	38.7%	-7.2
Water Allies	10.0%	10	5-5-0	50.0%	50.0%	52.3%	+1.0
Fire Umbra Ranger	7.5%	16	5-11-0	31.2%	35.0%	34.3%	-6.3
Rogue	6.2%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	49.3%	-0.7
Fire Crux Mage	5.0%	1	0-0-1	50.0%	50.0%	47.8%	-3.5
Fire Erupting	3.8%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Arcane	2.5%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	49.0%	-0.9
Fire Lorraine	2.5%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	49.9%	-0.1
Water Luxem Assassin	2.5%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	61.7%	+18.8
Fire Crux Lorraine	1.2%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	63.0%	+20.9
Fire Crux Merlin	1.2%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	62.4%	+19.8
Fire Neos	1.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Umbra Diana	1.2%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	38.6%	-18.3
Wind Crux Lorraine	1.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Umbra Diana	1.2%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Umbra Ranger	1.2%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	36.2%	-22.1

Decklists · 10 from this event

The 10 public Fire Crux Hybrid decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 7 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Tithe Proclamation, Devastating Blow, Scry the Skies. Losers more often ran: Crux Sight, Hasty Messenger, Resolute Stand.

↑ Played more by winners