← SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
decks
1
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1633
· median 1633
· range 1633–1633
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1250
Q3 1450
1730
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 16.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
